How to Bet on NFL Games: The Complete Beginner's Guide
By Ryan Cole · Published
Key Points
- NFL lines open Sunday night or Monday for the following week's games.
- The spread, moneyline, and total are the three core NFL markets.
- Key numbers 3 and 7 are the most important margins in NFL betting.
- Home field advantage used to be worth about 3 points; recent estimates put it closer to 1.5–2.
- Weather, injuries, and public perception are the biggest line-moving factors.
Why Bet on NFL?
The NFL generates more sports betting handle than any other American sport, by a wide margin. Lines are deep, books are competitive, and information is widely available. It's both the most popular and most efficient market, meaning edges are harder to find but the infrastructure is excellent.
Reading an NFL Betting Line
A typical NFL line looks like this:
Kansas City Chiefs -7 (-110) / Las Vegas Raiders +7 (-110)
Moneyline: Chiefs -320 / Raiders +260
Total: 46.5 o/u (-110/-110)
This gives you three betting options for every game:
The Spread
Chiefs -7: Chiefs must win by 8+ points. Raiders +7: Raiders can lose by up to 6 and still cover.
The Moneyline
Bet $320 to win $100 on the Chiefs. Bet $100 to win $260 on the Raiders outright.
The Total (Over/Under)
Bet on whether both teams combine for more or fewer than 46.5 points. Both sides priced at -110.
When NFL Lines Are Released
- Sunday night/Monday: Lines open for the following week's games
- Early week: Lower limits, more variance, more sharp influence
- Thursday–Saturday: Lines stabilize, limits increase
- Sunday morning: The closing line. Most efficient
Betting early gets you access to the opening number (often better for finding value), but early limits are lower.
Key Numbers in NFL Betting
The most common NFL winning margins are 3 (field goal) and 7 (touchdown). This matters enormously for spread betting:
- A spread of -3 is much more valuable than -3.5
- A spread of +7 is much better than +6.5
- Moving a spread through these numbers costs extra juice but is often worth it
Home Field Advantage
Home field in the NFL was long treated as worth 3 points. In recent seasons most estimates put it closer to 1.5 to 2 points. Books account for it in the opening line. High-altitude venues (Denver), dome advantages, and division familiarity can increase or decrease this value.
The Major Factors That Move NFL Lines
Injuries: A starting QB injury can move a line 7+ points. O-line injuries affect totals. WR injuries affect passing props.
Weather: High winds reduce totals significantly (under is typically favored in sustained 20+ mph winds). Rain has a modest effect.
Public money: The NFL draws the most square action of any sport. Books shade lines toward popular teams (Cowboys, Chiefs, Patriots historically) to exploit public bias.
Sharp action: Significant bets from professional bettors move lines quickly, often in early-week betting.
NFL Betting Markets Beyond the Big Three
First half / second half lines: Spreads and totals for individual halves only.
Team totals: Over/under on a single team's score.
Player props: Passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, TD scorer, etc.
Game props: First scoring play, method of first score, margin of victory.
Season futures: Super Bowl winner, division winners, win totals.
Building an NFL Betting Framework
- Focus on one division you know deeply before expanding
- Track closing lines: compare your opening bet to the closing number
- Shop across 3+ books for every bet. Line differences are common
- Fade injured teams: especially when injuries are confirmed late
- Understand the schedule: teams on short weeks (Thursday games) or off long weeks perform differently
The Hardest Part
The NFL is the most bet sport in the US. That means the most sophisticated oddsmakers, the most data, and the tightest lines. Finding consistent edges is genuinely difficult. Start with bankroll discipline and realistic expectations. Long-term success comes from process, not results.