Key Numbers
The most common margins of victory in a sport, and the numbers spread bettors care about most.
Key numbers are the margins of victory that occur most frequently in a sport. In the NFL, the most important key numbers are 3 (field goal) and 7 (touchdown + extra point). Games end on these margins far more often than others.
Why Key Numbers Matter
A spread at -3 is very different from -3.5. If the most common NFL winning margin is 3, then a favorite who wins by exactly 3 pushes at -3 but loses at -3.5. Sharp bettors pay close attention to where a spread sits relative to key numbers.
NFL Key Numbers
The most significant NFL key numbers:
- 3: Most common margin (field goal)
- 7: Second most common (touchdown)
- 10, 6, 14: Also common
Other Sports
Key numbers vary by sport. In the NBA, there are no dominant key numbers like the NFL due to high scores. In baseball and hockey, the 1-run and 1-goal margins are most common.
Key Takeaways
- 3 and 7 are the most critical NFL key numbers.
- Spreads crossing key numbers carry extra value.
- Paying a hook to land on the right side of a key number is often worth it.
Examples
- Buying from +2.5 to +3 moves an underdog onto a key number, which is usually worth the extra juice.
- A total of 43.5 vs. 44 matters less than 6.5 vs. 7 in NFL.
Related Terms
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A half-point in a betting line, such as -3.5 instead of -3.
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Frequently Asked Questions
What are the key numbers for NFL totals?
Commonly cited ones include 41, 43, 44, 47, and 51. They matter much less for totals than 3 and 7 matter for spreads.
Do key numbers matter in college football?
Yes. 3 and 7 are still the most common margins, but scoring varies more in college, so each key number carries a bit less weight than in the NFL.