Blackjack Odds
The probabilities behind blackjack, including the house edge, bust chances, and payout rules.
Blackjack odds describe the chances of each outcome at the blackjack table: how often you win or lose, how often the dealer busts, and how the payout rules change the house edge. Blackjack has one of the lowest house edges in the casino, but only if you play basic strategy and choose tables with good rules.
Dealer bust chances
How often the blackjack dealer busts, by the card they show
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Shows a 2
Weak card for the dealer
2Busts about 35% of the time
Shows a 3
Weak card for the dealer
3Busts about 38% of the time
Shows a 4
Weak card for the dealer
4Busts about 40% of the time
Shows a 5
Weak card for the dealer
5Busts about 43% of the time
Shows a 6
Weak card for the dealer
6Busts about 42% of the time
Shows a 7
Strong card for the dealer
7Busts about 26% of the time
Shows an 8
Strong card for the dealer
8Busts about 24% of the time
Shows a 9
Strong card for the dealer
9Busts about 23% of the time
Shows a 10
Strong card for the dealer
10Busts about 21% of the time
Shows an ace
Strong card for the dealer
ABusts about 12% of the time
Your Overall Odds
With basic strategy in a typical multi-deck game, each hand comes out roughly:
- Player wins: about 42%
- Dealer wins: about 49%
- Push (tie): about 9%
The dealer wins more hands because you act first: if you bust, you lose even if the dealer busts later. Blackjack payouts and smart doubles and splits make up most of the difference, bringing the house edge down to about 0.5%.
Chance of Getting Blackjack
You are dealt a natural blackjack (an ace plus a 10-value card) about 4.8% of the time, roughly once every 21 hands.
Dealer Bust Chances by Upcard
Approximate chances the dealer busts, by the card they show (six decks, dealer stands on soft 17):
| Dealer Upcard | Chance Dealer Busts |
|---|---|
| 2 | 35% |
| 3 | 38% |
| 4 | 40% |
| 5 | 43% |
| 6 | 42% |
| 7 | 26% |
| 8 | 24% |
| 9 | 23% |
| 10 | 21% |
| Ace | 12% |
This is why basic strategy has you stand on weaker totals against a 4, 5, or 6, and play more aggressively against a 7 or higher.
Rules That Change the House Edge
| Rule | Effect on House Edge |
|---|---|
| Blackjack pays 6:5 instead of 3:2 | adds about 1.4% |
| Dealer hits soft 17 | adds about 0.2% |
| Fewer decks | lowers it slightly |
| Double after split allowed | lowers it slightly |
The 6:5 payout is the big one. A $10 blackjack pays $15 at 3:2 but only $12 at 6:5, and it roughly quadruples the house edge. Avoid 6:5 tables.
Insurance
Insurance is a side bet that the dealer has blackjack. It pays 2 to 1, but it has a high house edge for most players, so basic strategy says never take it.
Key Takeaways
- With basic strategy and good rules, blackjack's house edge is about 0.5%.
- You get a natural blackjack about 4.8% of the time.
- The dealer busts most often when showing a 4, 5, or 6.
- 6:5 blackjack adds about 1.4% to the house edge. Avoid it.
Examples
- A $10 blackjack pays $15 at a 3:2 table and $12 at a 6:5 table.
- Facing a dealer 6, the dealer busts about 42% of the time, so you stand on 12 to 16.
Test Your Knowledge
1 / 4Do you know what House Edge means?
The casino's built-in average profit on a game, shown as a percentage of each bet.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the odds of winning a hand of blackjack?
Roughly 42% wins, 49% losses, and 9% pushes with basic strategy. Payouts for blackjacks, doubles, and splits bring the overall house edge down to about 0.5%.
Should I take insurance in blackjack?
No, not without counting cards. Insurance has a high house edge for regular players.